The odds
as of Oct 5, 20:27 UTC- Quebec Liberal Party 82% +6
- Conservative Party of Québec 7% +2
- Parti Québécois 5% −12
- Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ) 1% −1
- Québec solidaire 1% —
Traded today$3K
Traded in all$57K
Favourite, 7 days−7 pts
Quebec Liberal Party, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 89% · Sep 29: 86% · Sep 30: 83% · Oct 1: 86% · Oct 2: 73% · Oct 3: 75% · Oct 4: 76% · Oct 5: 82%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Quebec Liberal Party; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Quebec Liberal Party finishes in 2nd place in the 2026 Quebec general election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For plurality voting: rank is based on province-wide certified valid-vote count or percentage, not seats won In case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities), rounded down. If no listed party is tied for second and an unlisted party finishes second, every named market resolves NO. Parties that withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. Resolution uses the final certified result from Élections Québec, not the preliminary election-night count. If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond expiration, all markets resolve NO.
Settlement sources: Elections Quebec
See it on Kalshi ↗