The odds
as of Oct 5, 20:27 UTC- Augusto Cury 97% +58
- Eduardo Bolsonaro 6% —
- Ronaldo Caiado 6% −3
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 4% —
- Flávio Bolsonaro 3% +2
- Michelle Bolsonaro 3% —
- Romeu Zema 2% —
- Renan Santos 1% −54
Traded today$22K
Traded in all$154K
Favourite, 7 days+54 pts
Augusto Cury, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 43% · Sep 29: 39% · Sep 30: 36% · Oct 1: 31% · Oct 2: 27% · Oct 3: 24% · Oct 4: 98% · Oct 5: 98%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Augusto Cury; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Augusto Cury finishes in 3rd place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For plurality voting: rank is based on vote count or percentage For ranked choice voting: rank is determined by elimination order (runner-up is eliminated in final round for second place) For two-round systems: rank is based on final round results if it proceeds to second round, otherwise first-round totals For proportional representation: rank follows the electoral authority's final seat allocation order In case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities). Write-in candidates achieving the specified rank resolve all named candidate markets to NO unless a specific "Write-in" or "Other" option exists. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond expiration, all markets resolve to NO.
Settlement sources: Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)
See it on Kalshi ↗