The odds
as of Oct 12, 17:25 UTC- Peru 93% −4
- Uruguay 93% −1
- Argentina 83% −14
- Brazil 20% −7
- Mexico 18% —
- Portugal 15% —
- Israel 13% —
- Jordan 9.5% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$216K
Favourite, 7 days−4 pts
Peru, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 5: 97% · Oct 6: 97% · Oct 7: 97% · Oct 8: 97% · Oct 9: 96% · Oct 10: 98% · Oct 11: 98% · Oct 12: 94%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Peru; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Pope Leo XIV has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Peru before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The following do NOT constitute a visit: Flying over the area without landing Layovers during which the person remains in an airplane Virtual or remote appearances Presence in international waters adjacent to the area Presence solely within embassy or consulate grounds Plans, announcements, or scheduling of future visits that do not occur during the applicable time period For the avoidance of doubt, a visit occurs only when the person exits an aircraft, vehicle, vessel, or train within the area, or otherwise physically enters the area not aboard one. Remaining aboard, including during flyovers, drive-throughs, and non-exit refueling stops, does not constitute a visit. Exiting within the area constitutes a visit regardless of duration or method of exit.
Settlement sources: The Guardian; local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in the country; Pope Leo XIV; official government sources of the country; official representatives or offices of Pope Leo XIV; The New York Times; the Associated Press; Reuters; Politico; Semafor; The Information; The Washington Post; The Wall Street Journal; CNN; Fox News; MSNBC; CNBC
See it on Kalshi ↗