The odds
as of Oct 7, 17:27 UTC- 1 or more 31% −3
- 2 or more 19% −11
- 5 or more 14% +2
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$5K
Traded in all$26K
Favourite, 7 days−20 pts
1 or more, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 5: 61% · Oct 6: 30% · Oct 7: 31%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, 1 or more; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the total number of human plague cases reported in Irkutsk Oblast during 2026 is at least 1, then the market resolves to Yes. Cases are determined at 10:00 AM ET on the Expiration Date (November 8). Only cases that Rospotrebnadzor, Russia's federal public health agency, confirms after Issuance and before November 1, 2026 count. Cases newly reported during the window between November 1 and Expiration do not count, even if they are backdated to the specified time period. A case is a human infection with Yersinia pestis (plague in any form) in Irkutsk Oblast, including a posthumous confirmation, and each infected person counts once. Suspected cases, and illness described as pneumonia of undetermined etiology, do not count.
Settlement sources: Rospotrebnadzor
See it on Kalshi ↗