The odds
as of Oct 26, 19:23 UTC- Above 170 96% +1
- Above 180 88% —
- Above 185 81% —
- Above 190 67% +12
- Above 195 45% +4
- Above 200 18% −13
- Above 205 12% —
- Above 210 5.5% −2
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$21K
Traded in all$30K
Favourite, 7 days+5.5 pts
Above 170, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 23: 94% · Oct 24: 95% · Oct 25: 95% · Oct 26: 96%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 170; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the number of transit calls through the Panama Canal as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 170 from Oct 26, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Oct 26, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
Settlement sources: IMF PortWatch
See it on Kalshi ↗