The odds
as of Oct 5, 23:22 UTC- Above 4.1 million 94% —
- Above 4.2 million 90% —
- Above 4.3 million 67% +1
- Above 4.4 million 14% −12
- Above 4.5 million 5.5% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$43K
Traded in all$133K
Favourite, 7 daysunch
Above 4.1 million, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 94% · Sep 29: 94% · Sep 30: 94% · Oct 1: 94% · Oct 2: 94% · Oct 3: 94% · Oct 4: 94% · Oct 5: 94%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 4.1 million; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series is above 4.1 million in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: Metropolitan Transportation Authority
See it on Kalshi ↗