The odds
as of Oct 6, 04:30 UTC- Before Apr 2027 67% —
- Before Mar 2027 43% −3
- Before Feb 2027 28% —
- Before 2027 4% —
- Before August 1% —
- Before September 1% —
- Before October 1% —
- Before November 1% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$190K
Favourite, 7 days−1 pts
Before Apr 2027, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 29: 68% · Sep 30: 68% · Oct 1: 67% · Oct 2: 67% · Oct 3: 67% · Oct 4: 67% · Oct 5: 67% · Oct 6: 67%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Apr 2027; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket has launched from the launch pad before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: Bloomberg; Blue Origin; FAA
See it on Kalshi ↗