The odds
as of Oct 5, 05:55 UTC- Gemini 17% +2
- Claude 11% —
- ChatGPT 6.5% +1
- Grok 2% −2
- Other 1.5% —
- Qwen 1% —
- Kimi 1% —
- Ernie 1% —
Traded today$7K
Traded in all$164K
Favourite, 7 days+14 pts
Gemini, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 2% · Sep 29: 2% · Sep 30: 14% · Oct 1: 13% · Oct 2: 18% · Oct 3: 16% · Oct 4: 17% · Oct 5: 17%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Gemini; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If a model by Google is the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)
See it on Kalshi ↗