The odds
as of Oct 5, 07:48 UTC- Above 425,000 TEUs 96% —
- Above 450,000 TEUs 93% —
- Above 475,000 TEUs 87% —
- Above 500,000 TEUs 72% +1
- Above 525,000 TEUs 53% −3
- Above 550,000 TEUs 38% +6
- Above 575,000 TEUs 24% —
- Above 600,000 TEUs 22% +2
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$90K
Favourite, 7 daysunch
Above 425,000 TEUs, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 96% · Sep 29: 96% · Sep 30: 96% · Oct 1: 94% · Oct 2: 94% · Oct 3: 96% · Oct 4: 96% · Oct 5: 96%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 425,000 TEUs; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Port of Mobile container throughput for calendar year 2026 is above 425,000 TEUs, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the calendar-year total container throughput at APM Terminals Mobile, measured in twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), including loaded and empty import and export containers. It does not use container moves, tonnage, vessel capacity, or intermodal rail volume. Resolution uses the first published full-year 2026 total; subsequent revisions do not affect resolution.
Settlement sources: Alabama Port Authority - Port of Mobile Container Terminal
See it on Kalshi ↗