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KalshiCloses November 30, 2027

Who will be House Minority Leader in the 120th Congress?

Mike Johnson leads at 27% (about 3 in ten) on Kalshi, as of Oct 12, 17:25 UTC. It's up 14 points in the last 24 hours.

Mike Johnson 27% ▲ 14 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 12, 17:25 UTC
  • Mike Johnson 27% +14
  • Jim Jordan 27% —
  • Steve Scalise 8.5% —
  • Tom Emmer 4.5% +3
  • Hakeem Jeffries 3.5% +1
  • Richard Hudson 1.5% —
  • August Pfluger 1.5% —
  • Kevin Hern 1.5% —
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$95K
Favourite, 7 daysunch

Mike Johnson, the last 7 days

Kalshi price
25%50%75%Oct 12Oct 1227%

How it resolves

Kalshi's rule, word for word
(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Mike Johnson; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Mike Johnson wins the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. For this indirect election, the winner is the candidate elected House Minority Leader by the House Democratic Caucus or the House Republican Conference of whichever party holds the minority in the 120th Congress, as certified by that body. A later change in the office does not affect resolution. If the minority party selects someone not listed, every market resolves NO. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources: House Democratic Caucus; House Republican Conference

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