The odds
as of Oct 7, 06:40 UTC- Before 2035 88% +8.7
- Before 2030 59% +6
- Before 2029 27% −1
- Before 2028 9.5% +4
- Before 2027 2.5% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$697
Traded in all$326K
Favourite, 7 days+5 pts
Before 2035, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 29: 79% · Sep 30: 83% · Oct 1: 83% · Oct 2: 83% · Oct 3: 83% · Oct 4: 84% · Oct 5: 84% · Oct 6: 88%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before 2035; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Clay Mathematics Institute officially announces the award of a Millennium Prize for any unsolved Millennium Prize Problem before Jan 1, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes. The Clay Mathematics Institute must officially announce that a Millennium Prize has been awarded for the complete solution of the specified problem. The solution must be a positive proof as originally stated, not a counterexample or disproof (unless the market specifically includes counterexamples). Announcements of submitted solutions, peer-reviewed publications without CMI verification, or partial solutions do not qualify. If a mathematician solves a problem but declines the monetary prize, the market still resolves to Yes if CMI officially announces the prize award. The Poincaré Conjecture has already been solved by Grigori Perelman.
Settlement sources: the Clay Mathematics Institute
See it on Kalshi ↗