The odds
as of Nov 10, 15:15 UTC- Above 25,000 90% −2
- Above 27,500 73% −6
- Above 30,000 69% —
- Above 32,500 38% —
- Above 35,000 23% —
- Above 37,500 14% —
- Above 40,000 14% —
- Above 42,500 5.5% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$11K
Traded in all$46K
Favourite, 7 days−2 pts
Above 25,000, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceNov 3: 92% · Nov 4: 92% · Nov 5: 92% · Nov 6: 92% · Nov 7: 92% · Nov 8: 92% · Nov 9: 92% · Nov 10: 90%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 25,000; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the number of lead and galvanized-previously-connected-to-lead (GPCL) service lines fully replaced statewide by Michigan community water supplies, as compiled and published by EGLE from the annual service line replacement reports required by Michigan's Lead and Copper Rule is above 25,000 in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy (EGLE)
See it on Kalshi ↗