Moving
Closest Senate race in 2026? Mississippi 92% ▲+88Mississippi Senate winner? Cindy Hyde-Smith 7.3% ▼−80Wyoming margin of victory Gray, 22+ pts 4.9% ▼−79Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026? Mississippi 85% ▲+77Closest Governor race in 2026? Kansas 84% ▲+74Georgia State House winner? Democratic party 97% ▲+67Who will be the top ActBlue fundraiser on Nov 6, 2… James Talarico 12% ▼−65How many House seats will Democrats win in Virginia? 8 96% ▲+61Colorado's 4th District margin of victory Boebert, 1+ pts 3.9% ▼−60Tossup Senate Race Combo: which states will Democr… Democratic sweep 91% ▲+58North Carolina's 3rd District margin of victory Murphy, 1+ pts 3% ▼−57Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? Nithya Raman, 6-8% 59% ▲+53Iowa: Sand's margin vs. Turek's margin? Sand by 6-9 90% ▲+53Kortrijk vs Mechelen Mechelen 90% ▲+51
KalshiCloses November 3, 2027

South Dakota Senate margin of victory

Rounds, 3+ pts leads at >99% (all but certain, by the price) on Kalshi, as of Nov 4, 21:14 UTC. It's up 11 points in the last 24 hours.

Rounds, 3+ pts >99% ▲ 11 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Nov 4, 21:14 UTC
  • Rounds, 3+ pts >99% +11
  • Rounds, 5+ pts >99% +12
  • Rounds, 9+ pts >99% +31
  • Rounds, 7+ pts >99% +23
  • Rounds, 13+ pts >99% +46
  • Rounds, 11+ pts >99% +33
  • Rounds, 17+ pts >99% +70
  • Rounds, 15+ pts >99% +58

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$106K
Traded in all$125K
Favourite, 7 days+8.3 pts

Rounds, 3+ pts, the last 7 days

Kalshi price
25%50%75%Oct 28Nov 4100%

Oct 28: 92% · Oct 29: 92% · Oct 30: 91% · Oct 31: 91% · Nov 1: 83% · Nov 2: 92% · Nov 3: 87% · Nov 4: >99%

How it resolves

Kalshi's rule, word for word
(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Rounds, 3+ pts; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in South Dakota by 3 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed. If the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).

Settlement sources: South Dakota Secretary of State

See it on Kalshi ↗

Politics & elections

More markets like this

All →