The odds
as of Oct 15, 19:20 UTC- Moody, 2+ pts 88% +1
- Moody, 4+ pts 82% +1
- Moody, 6+ pts 65% +6
- Moody, 8+ pts 51% +3
- Moody, 10+ pts 37% +5
- Moody, 12+ pts 25% —
- Moody, 14+ pts 16% +3
- Moody, 16+ pts 10% +1
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$29K
Traded in all$121K
Favourite, 7 days+2 pts
Moody, 2+ pts, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 8: 88% · Oct 9: 85% · Oct 10: 86% · Oct 11: 87% · Oct 12: 87% · Oct 13: 87% · Oct 14: 87% · Oct 15: 88%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Moody, 2+ pts; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Florida by 2 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed. If the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
Settlement sources: official election authority responsible for certifying results in
See it on Kalshi ↗