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KalshiCloses February 1, 2027

Midterms: Democratic mega tsunami?

The market puts it at 20% — about 2 in ten — on Kalshi, as of Oct 15, 23:19 UTC. It's up 0.5 points in the last 24 hours.

Yes 20% ▲ 0.5 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 15, 23:19 UTC
  • Chance of yes 20% +0.5
Traded today$21K
Traded in all$44K
Yes, 7 daysunch

Yes, the last 7 days

Kalshi price
25%50%75%Oct 8Oct 1520%

Oct 8: 18% · Oct 9: 20% · Oct 10: 20% · Oct 11: 21% · Oct 12: 19% · Oct 13: 19% · Oct 14: 19% · Oct 15: 20%

How it resolves

Kalshi's rule, word for word
If ALL of the following occur: Democrats hold 240 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND Democrats hold 54 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms, then the market resolves to Yes. This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: "Will Democrats hold 240 or more seats in the House?" uses SEATSCONGRESS, "Will Democrats hold 54 or more seats in the Senate?" uses SEATSCONGRESS. All conditions must be satisfied on February 1, 2027. This market will resolve based on the composition of the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate on February 1, 2027. Individuals caucusing with either party will be included with them (e.g. an Independent who caucuses with a party, like Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders who caucuses with the Democrats, would be counted as a Democrat).

Settlement sources: United States House of Representatives; United States Senate

See it on Kalshi ↗

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