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KalshiCloses January 1, 2027

Will María Corina Machado visit Venezuela?

Before Jan 1, 2027 leads at 67% (about 7 in ten) on Kalshi, as of Oct 6, 17:22 UTC. It's up 25 points in the last 24 hours.

The odds

as of Oct 6, 17:22 UTC
  • Before Jan 1, 2027 67% +25
  • Before Aug 1, 2026 1% —
  • Before Oct 1, 2026 1% —

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$2K
Traded in all$50K
Favourite, 7 days+26 pts

Before Jan 1, 2027, the last 7 days

Kalshi price
25%50%75%Sep 28Oct 661%

Sep 29: 54% · Sep 30: 56% · Oct 1: 46% · Oct 2: 44% · Oct 3: 44% · Oct 4: 43% · Oct 5: 42% · Oct 6: 61%

How it resolves

Kalshi's rule, word for word
(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Jan 1, 2027; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If María Corina Machado has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Venezuela before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The following do NOT constitute a visit: Flying over the area without landing Layovers during which the person remains in an airplane Virtual or remote appearances Presence in international waters adjacent to the area Presence solely within embassy or consulate grounds Plans, announcements, or scheduling of future visits that do not occur during the applicable time period For the avoidance of doubt, a visit occurs only when the person exits an aircraft, vehicle, vessel, or train within the area, or otherwise physically enters the area not aboard one. Remaining aboard, including during flyovers, drive-throughs, and non-exit refueling stops, does not constitute a visit. Exiting within the area constitutes a visit regardless of duration or method of exit.

Settlement sources: The Guardian; official representatives or offices of ; Fox News; official social media accounts of or their official representatives; Semafor; The Information; CNBC; the Associated Press; The Wall Street Journal; CNN; Politico; MSNBC; The Washington Post; Reuters; local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in ; official government sources of ; The New York Times

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