The odds
as of Oct 13, 12:40 UTC- 5 or more 57% —
- Exactly 4 20% —
- Exactly 3 14% +4
- Exactly 2 11% +17
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$62K
Favourite, 7 days+5.5 pts
5 or more, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 6: 51% · Oct 7: 52% · Oct 8: 55% · Oct 9: 56% · Oct 10: 54% · Oct 11: 54% · Oct 12: 56% · Oct 13: 57%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, 5 or more; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If at least 5 members of the Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Members count as losing re-election if they actively seek re-election (by filing candidacy or appearing on ballot) but fail to win. This includes losses in primaries, general elections, runoffs, retention elections, or recalls. Members who retire, withdraw before primaries, die, resign, or are disqualified do not count as losses. If redistricting forces two group members against each other, the loser counts. Members who switch parties after issuance remain part of the original group. If a member loses their party primary but wins as an independent, they did not lose re-election.
Settlement sources: the Senate Parliamentarian; New York Times; the Associated Press; Bloomberg News; CNN; NBC; ABC; CBS; Fox News; The Wall Street Journal; The Washington Post; Politico; Ballotpedia; official state or local election division websites; the Clerk of the House of Representatives; the Secretary of the Senate
See it on Kalshi ↗