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KalshiCloses November 3, 2027

Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? (Nithya Raman)

Nithya Raman, ≥4% leads at 37% (about 4 in ten) on Kalshi, as of Oct 28, 13:18 UTC. It's up 5 points in the last 24 hours.

Nithya Raman, ≥4% 37% ▲ 5 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 28, 13:18 UTC
  • Nithya Raman, ≥4% 37% +5
  • Nithya Raman, ≥2% 35% −8
  • Nithya Raman, ≥6% 33% −3
  • Nithya Raman, ≥8% 25% −15
  • Nithya Raman, ≥10% 14% −5
  • Nithya Raman, ≥12% 12% +3
  • Nithya Raman, ≥14% 8.5% +5
  • Nithya Raman, ≥16% 5.5% +6

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$14K
Traded in all$29K
Favourite, 7 days−4 pts

Nithya Raman, ≥4%, the last 7 days

Kalshi price
25%50%75%Oct 20Oct 2837%

Oct 21: 43% · Oct 22: 40% · Oct 23: 40% · Oct 24: 40% · Oct 25: 37% · Oct 26: 37% · Oct 27: 39% · Oct 28: 37%

How it resolves

Kalshi's rule, word for word
(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Nithya Raman, ≥4%; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election falls within 4% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the vote share received by Nithya Raman minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Nithya Raman if Nithya Raman wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Nithya Raman loses. If Nithya Raman wins, the margin will be positive; if Nithya Raman loses, the margin will be negative; if Nithya Raman ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Nithya Raman runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.

Settlement sources: Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk

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