The odds
as of Oct 10, 02:38 UTC- Before Jul 1, 2027 53% +1
- Before Oct 1, 2027 52% +2
- Before Apr 1, 2027 42% −1
- Before Feb 1, 2027 14% —
- Before Jan 1, 2027 11% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$60K
Favourite, 7 days−2 pts
Before Jul 1, 2027, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 3: 55% · Oct 4: 56% · Oct 5: 57% · Oct 6: 56% · Oct 7: 56% · Oct 8: 56% · Oct 9: 56% · Oct 10: 52%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Jul 1, 2027; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Kamala Harris has announced that she will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Jul 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes. The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources.
Settlement sources: Kamala Harris
See it on Kalshi ↗