The odds
as of Oct 23, 06:38 UTC- Before 2028 14% +6
- Before 2027 2% −1
- Before September 2026 1% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$4K
Traded in all$317K
Favourite, 7 days+4.5 pts
Before 2028, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 15: 9% · Oct 16: 9% · Oct 17: 9.5% · Oct 19: 9% · Oct 20: 8% · Oct 21: 9% · Oct 22: 9% · Oct 23: 11%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before 2028; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the United States has announced the opening of an embassy or consulate of the United States of America in Iran after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. The embassy/consulate must be opened or have a specific date on which it will be opened to be encompassed by the Payout Criterion. It also includes an embassy being re-opened after suspending operations.
Settlement sources: The New York Times
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