The odds
as of Oct 5, 15:27 UTC- Chance of yes 1.9% —
Traded today$7K
Traded in all$319K
Yes, 7 days−1.3 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 3.1% · Sep 29: 3% · Sep 30: 2.7% · Oct 1: 2.2% · Oct 2: 2.2% · Oct 3: 2.2% · Oct 4: 2.2% · Oct 5: 2%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for wordIf Iran's score in the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index is at least 6.00 as published in the EIU Democracy Index 2026 report, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: The Economist
See it on Kalshi ↗