The odds
as of Oct 25, 10:21 UTC- 8,000 or above 49% −3.4
- 8,200 or above 20% −0.7
- 8,400 or above 8% −5
- 8,600 or above 5.3% —
- 8,800 or above 3.8% —
- 9,000 or above 2.9% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$7K
Traded in all$1.0M
Favourite, 7 days−1.6 pts
8,000 or above, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 18: 49% · Oct 19: 52% · Oct 20: 57% · Oct 21: 62% · Oct 22: 57% · Oct 23: 48% · Oct 24: 48% · Oct 25: 49%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, 8,000 or above; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the value of the S&P 500 index value starting Jan 1, 2026 and ending before Jan 1, 2027 is above 7999.99, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: For example, Google Finance
See it on Kalshi ↗