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KalshiCloses June 30, 2027

Serbian parliamentary election winner?

SNS-led list leads at 64% (about 6 in ten) on Kalshi, as of Oct 24, 21:20 UTC. It's down 9 points in the last 24 hours.

SNS-led list 64% ▼ 9 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 24, 21:20 UTC
  • SNS-led list 64% −9
  • Student list 32% +3
Traded today$14K
Traded in all$33K
Favourite, 7 days−2 pts

SNS-led list, the last 7 days

Kalshi price
25%50%75%Oct 16Oct 2469%

Oct 17: 63% · Oct 18: 74% · Oct 19: 72% · Oct 20: 72% · Oct 21: 68% · Oct 22: 69% · Oct 23: 69% · Oct 24: 69%

How it resolves

Kalshi's rule, word for word
(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, SNS-led list; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If SNS-led list wins the next Serbian parliamentary election, then the market resolves to Yes. SNS-led list: Any formally registered electoral list containing the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS). Student list: Any formally registered electoral list designated as its national parliamentary electoral list by the university students organizing Serbia’s nationwide university blockades, provided that the list does not contain SNS. For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources: Republic Electoral Commission

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