The odds
as of Oct 19, 13:28 UTC- Above 15 92% −1
- Above 20 68% +2
- Above 25 43% −5
- Above 30 20% +2
- Above 35 9.5% +1
- Above 40 3.5% —
- Above 50 1.5% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$16K
Traded in all$25K
Favourite, 7 days+2.5 pts
Above 15, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 16: 93% · Oct 17: 92% · Oct 18: 88% · Oct 19: 92%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 15; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 15 from Oct 19, 2026 to Oct 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Oct 19, 2026 to Oct 25, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
Settlement sources: IMF PortWatch
See it on Kalshi ↗