The odds
as of Nov 10, 15:15 UTC- Above 15 91% −1
- Above 20 72% −5
- Above 23 48% −24
- Above 25 42% −10
- Above 27 28% −11
- Above 30 17% −4
- Above 35 7% −5
- Above 40 2.5% −1
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$40K
Traded in all$65K
Favourite, 7 days+41 pts
Above 15, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceNov 6: 74% · Nov 7: 92% · Nov 8: 92% · Nov 9: 92% · Nov 10: 91%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 15; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 15 from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
Settlement sources: IMF PortWatch
See it on Kalshi ↗