The odds
as of Oct 26, 19:23 UTC- Above 15 96% +2
- Above 20 88% +8
- Above 23 48% −16
- Above 25 43% −10
- Above 27 27% −5
- Above 30 22% −10
- Above 35 7.5% −6
- Above 40 2.5% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$25K
Traded in all$35K
Favourite, 7 days+8 pts
Above 15, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 23: 92% · Oct 24: 92% · Oct 25: 94% · Oct 26: 96%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 15; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 15 from Oct 26, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Oct 26, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
Settlement sources: IMF PortWatch
See it on Kalshi ↗