The odds
as of Oct 21, 01:33 UTC- Above 3 96% +4
- Above 4 85% +8
- Above 5 74% +19
- Above 6 44% +5
- Above 7 19% —
- Above 8 8% −5
- Above 9 3.5% −2
- Above 10 2.5% −3
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$21K
Traded in all$34K
Favourite, 7 days+46 pts
Above 3, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 16: 92% · Oct 17: 93% · Oct 18: 93% · Oct 19: 94% · Oct 20: 96% · Oct 21: 97%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 3; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 3 from Oct 19, 2026 to Oct 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The Expiration Value is determined by identifying the highest single-day count from Oct 19, 2026 to Oct 25, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
Settlement sources: IMF PortWatch
See it on Kalshi ↗