The odds
as of Oct 6, 12:36 UTC- Above 4 91% +2
- Above 6 47% −1
- Above 8 7.5% −1
- Above 10 7.5% +3
- Above 12 4% —
- Above 14 2.5% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$33K
Traded in all$52K
Favourite, 7 days+46 pts
Above 4, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 2: 88% · Oct 3: 90% · Oct 4: 90% · Oct 5: 94% · Oct 6: 93%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 4; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 4 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The Expiration Value is determined by identifying the highest single-day count from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
Settlement sources: IMF PortWatch
See it on Kalshi ↗