The odds
as of Oct 12, 10:31 UTC- Fort Bend 90% +1
- Tarrant 81% −17
- Collin 68% —
- Denton 50% −7
- Bell 26% −6
- Brazoria 22% —
- Bastrop 20% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$25K
Favourite, 7 days−8 pts
Fort Bend, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 4: 98% · Oct 5: 98% · Oct 6: 98% · Oct 8: 92% · Oct 9: 85% · Oct 10: 91% · Oct 11: 84% · Oct 12: 89%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Fort Bend; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If James Talarico wins the 2026 Texas Senate general election in Fort Bend County, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Settlement sources: Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division
See it on Kalshi ↗