The odds
as of Oct 5, 05:55 UTC- Before Nov 16, 2026 43% +3
- Before Dec 1, 2026 36% −7
- Before Nov 1, 2026 23% −5
- Before Oct 16, 2026 9.5% +1
- Before Sep 16, 2026 2% —
- Before Sep 1, 2026 1% —
- Before Oct 1, 2026 1% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$6K
Traded in all$89K
Favourite, 7 days−52 pts
Before Nov 16, 2026, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 95% · Sep 29: 89% · Sep 30: 82% · Oct 1: 21% · Oct 2: 28% · Oct 3: 28% · Oct 4: 31% · Oct 5: 43%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Nov 16, 2026; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Google releases next Gemini Pro model before Nov 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.
Settlement sources: Gemini
See it on Kalshi ↗