The odds
as of Oct 13, 01:06 UTC- Dot Plot Omitted 26% +6.5
- Reserve President Rejected 12% —
- Trimmed Mean Emphasized 11% —
- Presser Skipped 9.5% +2
- Reserve President Removed 3% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$683
Traded in all$44K
Favourite, 7 days−7 pts
Dot Plot Omitted, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 5: 33% · Oct 6: 32% · Oct 7: 34% · Oct 8: 31% · Oct 9: 15% · Oct 10: 13% · Oct 11: 14% · Oct 12: 20%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Dot Plot Omitted; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If a Summary of Economic Projections omits individual participants’ federal-funds-rate projections after May 05 10:00 AM ET and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity. Clarification 9/28/26: “Dot Plot Omitted” refers to a published Summary of Economic Projections omitting individual participants’ federal funds rate projections as a whole. The absence of a projection from one or more participants does not qualify if other participants’ individual projections are published. Those projections count regardless of their presentation format or whether the term “dot plot” is used.
Settlement sources: The Washington Post; Fox News; The Wall Street Journal; The Guardian; ABC; Bloomberg News; CBS; South China Morning Post; NBC; the Associated Press; The Verge; BBC; Axios; CNN; ABC News Australia; The Information; Semafor; MSNBC; CBC; Reuters; Politico; The New York Times
See it on Kalshi ↗