The odds
as of Oct 9, 19:22 UTC- Before Apr 1, 2027 45% −5.5
- Before Jan 1, 2027 20% −17
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$31K
Favourite, 7 days−5.5 pts
Before Apr 1, 2027, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 8: 50% · Oct 9: 45%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Apr 1, 2027; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If legislation that makes “Department of War” the official statutory name of the United States Department of Defense has become law after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: White House; Library of Congress
See it on Kalshi ↗