The odds
as of Oct 6, 17:22 UTC- Chance of yes 6% +3
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$132K
Yes, 7 days−14 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 29: 16% · Sep 30: 18% · Oct 1: 16% · Oct 2: 5% · Oct 3: 4% · Oct 4: 4% · Oct 5: 4% · Oct 6: 6.5%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for wordIf the United States has imposed a ban on exports of diesel that has gone into effect after Issuance and before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
Settlement sources: The Guardian; Fox News; South China Morning Post; The Information; MSNBC; ABC; BBC News; CBS; NBC; the New York Times; The Wall Street Journal; Reuters; CNN; ABC News Australia; Axios; Semafor; Politico; The Washington Post; the Associated Press; CBC (Canada); Bloomberg News
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