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KalshiCloses November 3, 2027

Will Democrats sweep the "core four" Senate races?

The market puts it at 54% — about 5 in ten — on Kalshi, as of Oct 5, 20:27 UTC. It's up 4 points in the last 24 hours.

The odds

as of Oct 5, 20:27 UTC
  • Chance of yes 54% +4
Traded today$3K
Traded in all$369K
Yes, 7 days−0.5 pts

Yes, the last 7 days

Kalshi price
25%50%75%Sep 27Oct 552%

Sep 28: 52% · Sep 29: 52% · Sep 30: 53% · Oct 1: 52% · Oct 2: 54% · Oct 3: 54% · Oct 4: 53% · Oct 5: 52%

How it resolves

Kalshi's rule, word for word
If Democrats win the 2026 Senate elections in ALL of the following states: Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine, then the market resolves to Yes. This market requires ALL specified candidates/parties/options to win their respective elections for a Yes resolution. If even one loses, the entire market resolves to No. For parliamentary elections, the party with the most seats wins. For referenda, the specified option must achieve the required threshold. For indirect elections, the ultimate officeholder matters, not intermediate selectors. Postponed elections remain open until rescheduled or two years from original date. Annulled elections remain open until re-run. Death after election but before taking office still counts as a win. In case of ties, the winner through the jurisdiction's tiebreak mechanism prevails. This market is eligible for accelerated determination two days after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources: the states of Georgia; Michigan; North Carolina; Maine

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Politics & elections

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