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KalshiCloses November 1, 2026

Will the Clarity Act become law?

Before Jan 1, 2028 leads at 22% (about 2 in ten) on Kalshi, as of Oct 12, 16:28 UTC. It's up 1 points in the last 24 hours.

Before Jan 1, 2028 22% ▲ 1 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 12, 16:28 UTC
  • Before Jan 1, 2028 22% +1
  • Before Oct 1, 2027 14% −5
  • Before Jul 1, 2027 11% −3
  • Before Apr 1, 2027 7% −3
  • Before Jan 1, 2027 6.2% −2.5
  • Before Dec 1, 2026 3% —
  • Before Sep 1, 2026 1% —
  • Before Oct 1, 2026 1% —

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$11K
Traded in all$7.2M
Favourite, 7 days+4 pts

Before Jan 1, 2028, the last 7 days

Kalshi price
25%50%75%Oct 4Oct 1222%

Oct 5: 17% · Oct 6: 17% · Oct 7: 17% · Oct 8: 17% · Oct 9: 19% · Oct 10: 19% · Oct 11: 19% · Oct 12: 22%

How it resolves

Kalshi's rule, word for word
(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Jan 1, 2028; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If a crypto market structure bill has become law before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this Contract, "crypto market structure legislation" means any bill that does all of the following: Establishes a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets, cryptocurrencies, or virtual currencies (but not solely for stablecoins); AND Delineates regulatory authority between federal agencies (such as the SEC, CFTC, or others) for oversight of digital assets; AND Creates definitions, classifications, or categories for when digital assets are considered securities, commodities, or other regulatory classifications. The following would NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion: Bills that solely regulate stablecoins without addressing broader crypto market structure; Bills that only ban or restrict specific crypto activities without creating a regulatory framework; Bills that only address Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs); Appropriations bills that merely fund crypto-related activities; Bills that only address crypto taxation without market structure provisions; Executive orders, regulatory guidance, or agency rules (only Congressional legislation counts); Bills that pass only one chamber of Congress; Bills that are vetoed and not overridden; State legislation of any kind Examples that WOULD meet the Payout Criterion: The Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act, if passed by both chambers and signed into law; The Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21), if passed by both chambers and signed into law; Any omnibus bill that includes comprehensive crypto market structure provisions as described above. Examples that would NOT meet the Payout Criterion: The GENIUS Act or STABLE Act (stablecoin-only legislation); The Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act (CBDC-specific); A bill that passes the House but not the Senate; An executive order directing agencies to study crypto regulation.

Settlement sources: Library of Congress

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