The odds
as of Nov 13, 00:38 UTC- Before Feb 1, 2028 93% +33
- Before Apr 1, 2027 62% −3
- Before Aug 1, 2027 62% +22
- Before Jan 1, 2027 58% +3
- Before Dec 1, 2026 24% −11
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$5K
Traded in all$28K
Favourite, 7 days+56 pts
Before Feb 1, 2028, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceNov 6: 37% · Nov 7: 36% · Nov 8: 36% · Nov 9: 37% · Nov 10: 56% · Nov 11: 66% · Nov 12: 60% · Nov 13: 93%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Feb 1, 2028; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Heidi Overton is the first person confirmed as Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration before Feb 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If a nomination is withdrawn before the deadline, that market immediately resolves to No.
Settlement sources: U.S. Senate
See it on Kalshi ↗