The odds
as of Oct 5, 07:48 UTC- Anthropic 75% +3
- OpenAI 14% −3
- Google 3.5% −6
- xAI 2.5% +1
- Moonshot AI 1.5% —
- Alibaba 1% —
- DeepSeek 1% —
- Baidu 1% —
Traded today$3K
Traded in all$1.1M
Favourite, 7 days+3 pts
Anthropic, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 69% · Sep 29: 77% · Sep 30: 72% · Oct 1: 72% · Oct 2: 72% · Oct 3: 74% · Oct 4: 74% · Oct 5: 75%
The same question on Polymarket
Two venues, two sets of traders, sometimes two slightly different rules — read both before comparing. Polymarket's number is as of Oct 5, 07:48 UTC.
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Anthropic; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Anthropic has the top-ranked model on LiveBench.ai ranked by "Coding Average" on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: LiveBench.ai
See it on Kalshi ↗