The odds
as of Oct 17, 22:19 UTC- Claude 46% −8
- ChatGPT 33% —
- Gemini 16% —
- DeepSeek 3% —
- Kimi 3% —
- GLM 2% —
- Grok 1% —
- MiMo 1% —
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$25K
Favourite, 7 days+8.5 pts
Claude, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 10: 38% · Oct 11: 38% · Oct 12: 37% · Oct 13: 23% · Oct 14: 34% · Oct 15: 42% · Oct 16: 54% · Oct 17: 54%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Claude; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Claude is the Highest Ranked DeepSWE score model on Datacurve DeepSWE on Oct 31, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Tied rankings shall be resolved using the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology; if none exists, all tied entities share the highest rank among them. If multiple candidates are tied for a given rank, then their Contracts will resolve to $1/(the number of candidates tied), rounded down. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Settlement sources: DeepSWE
See it on Kalshi ↗