The odds
as of Oct 17, 03:25 UTC- Harry Kane 89% —
- Kylian Mbappé 56% +4.5
- Lamine Yamal 50% +10
- Ferran Torres 7.6% +2.6
- Fabian Ruiz 4.5% −1.5
- Erling Haaland 4.5% −12
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia 4% −4.5
- Rodri 3.7% −39
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$20K
Traded in all$28K
Favourite, 7 daysunch
Harry Kane, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 14: 89% · Oct 15: 89% · Oct 16: 96% · Oct 17: 91%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 2 of the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. Otherwise, the corresponding market will resolve to "No".
The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026.
If more than 2 players tie for the top 2 in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's official top 2 list. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name.
If the award is postponed after November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or the final two places have not been determined within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
See it on Polymarket ↗