The odds
as of Oct 8, 09:31 UTC- Chance of yes 5.5% −12
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$149K
Yes, 7 days−5 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 1: 9.7% · Oct 2: 10% · Oct 3: 12% · Oct 4: 13% · Oct 5: 12% · Oct 6: 11% · Oct 7: 10% · Oct 8: 6.5%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for wordIf the United States acquires any part of Canada before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement by the United States and the entity that controls any part of Canada that it will happen is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. any part of Canada must come under formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, where it was not previously. Merely leasing a given part in territory – for example, setting up a military base on leased territory – is not encompassed by the Payout Criterion.
Settlement sources: The New York Times
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