The odds
as of Nov 10, 15:15 UTC- Chance of yes 4% +2
Traded today$645
Traded in all$201K
Yes, 7 daysunch
Yes, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceNov 3: 4.6% · Nov 4: 3.1% · Nov 5: 2.6% · Nov 6: 3.1% · Nov 7: 3.1% · Nov 8: 4% · Nov 9: 3% · Nov 10: 4%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for wordIf Donald Trump has issued an executive order or his Administration takes an executive action (including signing a bill into law) creating a “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve,” “National Bitcoin Reserve,” or any other formal government-held stockpile of Bitcoin after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. For example, if the U.S. government established a program or body that is equivalent to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for Bitcoin, or the United States Bullion Depository for Bitcoin, or if Bitcoin was held in the reserves of the U.S. Department of the Treasury like its foreign exchange and SDR holdings, then the Payout Criterion would be fulfilled. This would not include merely Bitcoin confiscated pursuant to criminal or civil enforcement proceedings.
Settlement sources: The New York Times; White House
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