The odds
as of Oct 18, 05:22 UTC- Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥1% 97% +1
- Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥4% 85% +5
- Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥7% 69% —
- Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥8% 55% —
- Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥10% 31% −4
- Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥13% 14% +5
- Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥16% 4% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$26K
Favourite, 7 daysunch
Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥1%, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 12: 96% · Oct 13: 92% · Oct 14: 96% · Oct 15: 97% · Oct 16: 96% · Oct 17: 96% · Oct 18: 97%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥1%; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff in the state of Tocantins is at or above 1%, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the share of valid votes cast in the state of Tocantins (excluding blank and null votes) received by Flávio Bolsonaro minus the share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Flávio Bolsonaro if Flávio Bolsonaro wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Flávio Bolsonaro loses. If Flávio Bolsonaro wins, the margin will be positive; if Flávio Bolsonaro loses, the margin will be negative; if Flávio Bolsonaro ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Flávio Bolsonaro runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.
Settlement sources: Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)
See it on Kalshi ↗