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KalshiCloses February 1, 2027

Midterms: Blue trickle?

The market puts it at 91% — about 9 in ten — on Kalshi, as of Oct 29, 13:19 UTC.

Yes 91%

The odds

as of Oct 29, 13:19 UTC
  • Chance of yes 91% —
Traded today$4K
Traded in all$32K
Yes, 7 days−1.5 pts

Yes, the last 7 days

Kalshi price
25%50%75%Oct 21Oct 2991%

Oct 22: 93% · Oct 23: 92% · Oct 24: 93% · Oct 25: 93% · Oct 26: 91% · Oct 27: 91% · Oct 28: 91% · Oct 29: 91%

How it resolves

Kalshi's rule, word for word
If ALL of the following occur: Democrats hold 215 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND Democrats hold 48 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms, then the market resolves to Yes. This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: "Will Democrats hold 215 or more seats in the House?" uses SEATSCONGRESS, "Will Democrats hold 48 or more seats in the Senate?" uses SEATSCONGRESS. All conditions must be satisfied on February 1, 2027. This market will resolve based on the composition of the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate on February 1, 2027. Individuals caucusing with either party will be included with them (e.g. an Independent who caucuses with a party, like Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders who caucuses with the Democrats, would be counted as a Democrat).

Settlement sources: United States House of Representatives; United States Senate

See it on Kalshi ↗

Politics & elections

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