The odds
as of Oct 6, 08:34 UTC- Chance of yes 7% −2
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$139K
Yes, 7 days−2.5 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 29: 8% · Sep 30: 7% · Oct 1: 7.5% · Oct 2: 6% · Oct 3: 7% · Oct 4: 8% · Oct 5: 9% · Oct 6: 7%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for wordIf a Chinese LLM is ranked as the top-ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The model must be top-ranked, alone, on the Rank metric (unless multiple Chinese models are #1) to resolve the market to Yes. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.
Settlement sources: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Controls)
See it on Kalshi ↗