The odds
as of Oct 17, 22:19 UTC- Above 150 92% −1
- Above 160 86% −2
- Above 170 76% —
- Above 180 59% —
- Above 185 49% —
- Above 190 41% —
- Above 195 35% —
- Above 200 28% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$22K
Traded in all$25K
Favourite, 7 days+4 pts
Above 150, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 16: 91% · Oct 17: 92%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 150; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 150 from Oct 19, 2026 to Oct 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Oct 19, 2026 to Oct 25, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
Settlement sources: IMF PortWatch
See it on Kalshi ↗