The odds
as of Oct 5, 04:33 UTC- above 1490 32% +1
- above 1500 31% +1
- above 1495 30% +1
- above 1510 28% −1
- above 1505 28% −4
- above 1520 28% —
- above 1515 27% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$6K
Traded in all$105K
Favourite, 7 days−58 pts
above 1490, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 94% · Sep 29: 91% · Sep 30: 78% · Oct 1: 57% · Oct 2: 39% · Oct 3: 27% · Oct 4: 31% · Oct 5: 32%
The same question on Polymarket
Two venues, two sets of traders, sometimes two slightly different rules — read both before comparing. Polymarket's number is as of Oct 5, 04:33 UTC.
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, above 1490; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If A model called Gemini 3.5 Pro or greater scores above 1490 on Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) Before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Any Gemini model added to the leaderboard labeled as "Gemini 3.5 Pro" or greater will qualify. If multiple qualifying models are added, the highest scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added following the initial qualifying model will not count.
Settlement sources: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)
See it on Kalshi ↗