The odds
as of Oct 6, 17:22 UTC- 38.2 to 38.4 30% +2
- 37.9 to 38.1 24% −2
- 38.5 to 38.7 18% —
- 38.8 to 39.0 12% −1
- 37.6 to 37.8 9.5% +1
- 39.1 to 39.3 7.5% −1
- Below 37.6 6.5% —
- Above 39.3 3.5% −1
Traded today$10K
Traded in all$27K
Favourite, 7 days+14 pts
38.2 to 38.4, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 2: 21% · Oct 3: 20% · Oct 4: 20% · Oct 5: 28% · Oct 6: 28%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, 38.2 to 38.4; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the President's approval rating is between 38.2 and 38.4% at 11:00 AM ET on October 09, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will determine at 11:00 AM ET on October 09, 2026.
Settlement sources: RealClearPolitics
See it on Kalshi ↗