Moving
PolymarketCloses November 1, 2026

Will Claude go down on __ days in October?

<5 leads at 76% (about 8 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 23, 02:33 UTC. It's up 2 points in the last 24 hours.

<5 76% ▲ 2 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 23, 02:33 UTC
  • <5 76% +2
  • 5-7 21% —
  • 8-10 <1% −5.4
  • 11-13 <1% —
  • 14+ <1% —
Traded today$3K
Traded in all$26K
Favourite, 7 days+47 pts

<5, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 15Oct 2376%

Oct 16: 32% · Oct 17: 38% · Oct 18: 47% · Oct 19: 48% · Oct 20: 60% · Oct 21: 74% · Oct 22: 71% · Oct 23: 76%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve according to the number of days in October 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
See it on Polymarket ↗

Tech & science

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