The odds
as of Oct 24, 17:19 UTC- At least 190,000 points 86% +10
- At least 191,000 points 86% +18
- At least 192,000 points 86% +27
- At least 193,000 points 77% −1
- At least 197,000 points 76% —
- At least 198,000 points 76% —
- At least 199,000 points 85% +39
- At least 204,000 points 76% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$29K
Traded in all$41K
Favourite, 7 days+26 pts
At least 190,000 points, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 19: 60% · Oct 20: 87% · Oct 21: 84% · Oct 22: 87% · Oct 23: 81% · Oct 24: 86%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, At least 190,000 points; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the value of IBOVESPA (IBOV), in native index points is at least 190,000 index points at the official B3 closing observation on October 26, 2026 (Brazil trading date), then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves using the official IBOVESPA (IBOV) closing level for October 26, 2026, including the closing auction. The observation is the official close for that Brazil trading date, even if its publication is delayed. The native index-point level is used, with no currency conversion; this explicitly overrides the default USD iteration. Source Agencies apply in the filed hierarchical order: the index, its provider (B3), TradingView, Trading Economics, Bloomberg News, The New York Times, BBC, CNBC, and CNN. TradingView's IBOV page is https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/INDEX-IBOV/. The observation is evaluated to two decimal places. If it is at least 190,000 index points, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. An earlier threshold crossing does not satisfy this closing or exact-time observation. Revisions after expiration are not considered. If no data for the specified observation is available by the Expiration Date, all strikes other than No data or None resolve to No, as provided in the filed terms. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the B3. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Settlement sources: Trading View
See it on Kalshi ↗