The odds
as of Oct 14, 14:25 UTC- Chance of yes 88% +7
Traded today$4K
Traded in all$28K
Yes, 7 days+7 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 7: 81% · Oct 8: 81% · Oct 9: 81% · Oct 10: 81% · Oct 11: 81% · Oct 12: 81% · Oct 13: 81% · Oct 14: 88%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for wordIf Alaska’s total crude oil field production in calendar year 2026 is above 153.607 million barrels, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is Alaska’s calendar-year total field production of crude oil, measured in barrels. The 153.607 million-barrel baseline is fixed to the 2025 annual total at market launch; later revisions do not change the strike.
Settlement sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration
See it on Kalshi ↗